Global Diamond Production Hits Two-Decade Low as Industry Faces Headwinds

Global diamond production hit a significant low of 111.5 million carats in 2023, marking the industry's weakest output in two decades. Russia's production dropped 11% to 37.3 million carats, while South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo reported substantial declines of 3.8 and 2.4 million carats respectively. The downturn coincides with a 35% decrease in rough diamond prices and a 20% fall in wholesale polished diamonds, reflecting broader market challenges including inventory buildups and reduced luxury spending. Major producers are now adapting their strategies amid resource scarcity and shifting consumer preferences, with the industry's future developments promising significant implications for the global market.

Record Low Production Numbers

The global diamond industry has reached a critical inflection point as production volumes plummeted to their lowest levels in two decades.

With output falling 8% to 111.5 million carats in 2023, the industry faces unprecedented challenges in maintaining supply chains while adhering to stringent sustainability practices and diamond certifications.

This sharp decline stems from multiple factors, with Russia, traditionally the world's largest producer, experiencing an 11% reduction to 37.3 million carats.

Significant decreases were also recorded in South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with respective falls of 3.8 million and 2.4 million carats.

The outlook for 2024 suggests further contraction, with production projected to decrease to 128.9 million carats from 129.8 million carats in 2023.

The industry's response to these challenges has been strategic, with major players like De Beers opting to build inventory rather than flood the market with excess supply.

This approach, while maintaining market stability, highlights the delicate balance between resource conservation and meeting global demand, particularly as established mines approach the end of their operational lifecycles.

The production slowdown has been further impacted as key operations like the Diavik mine in Canada prepare to cease operations by 2026.

The market is expected to reach industrial diamond growth of $2.51 billion by 2028, despite current production challenges.

Botswana continues to lead global production with 29% market share, demonstrating its crucial role in the diamond supply chain.

Major Market Disruptions

The diamond industry faces unprecedented market disruptions as stockpiles accumulate throughout the supply chain, prompting major producers to implement significant production cutbacks.

Global diamond manufacturers have reduced output by up to 30% in response to declining demand and mounting inventory challenges, particularly affecting operations in key mining regions across Africa and Russia. De Beers sales plunged by 70% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2023.

The industry's price index has recorded its steepest decline in recent history, with rough diamond prices falling by 35% and wholesale polished diamonds dropping by 20% in 2023, reflecting the severity of current market conditions. The rise of lab-grown diamonds among younger buyers has further intensified pressure on traditional diamond markets. Total diamond production has fallen sharply from 175 million carats in 2005-2006 to 121 million carats in 2023.

Supply Chain Stockpile Crisis

Major disruptions rocked the diamond industry in late 2023 as leading producers De Beers and ALROSA resorted to substantial stockpiling amid plummeting sales.

De Beers experienced a staggering 70% decline in year-over-year sales during Q4 2023, implementing aggressive stockpile strategies that resulted in an estimated $1 billion inventory build.

ALROSA's complete suspension of sales in October and November 2023 further intensified the industry's inventory management challenges. Russia's largest diamond producer mines 33-35 million carats annually despite market turbulence.

Manufacturers are struggling to move their expensive inventory purchases from the 2021-2022 peak pricing period.

While independent miners like Petra Diamonds and Burgundy Diamond Mines successfully cleared their excess inventory by year-end 2023, the major producers' substantial stockpiles are expected to enter the market in the initial half of 2024.

This anticipated release coincides with emerging signs of demand recovery, though market uncertainties persist.

The situation is further complicated by impending G7 sanctions on Russian diamonds, which could affect supplies of stones as small as 0.5 carats.

Despite these challenges, ALROSA maintains its production levels, potentially exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.

The industry now faces a critical period as it navigates through these unprecedented inventory levels while adapting to evolving market dynamics.

Production Cutbacks Hit Hard

Building upon the inventory challenges, global diamond production has plummeted to its lowest level in two decades, reaching just 111.5 million carats in 2023.

Major producers have implemented aggressive production strategies to address market oversupply, with Russia experiencing an 11% decline and South Africa's output dropping considerably due to operational issues at the Venetia deposit. The market size growth to $2.59 billion in 2024 reflects ongoing industry adjustments. Botswana's contribution of 45.3 million carats remains crucial to maintaining global supply levels.

The industry's production cutbacks are further complicated by the impending closure of several key mines.

The Diavik operation in Canada is set to cease commercial production by 2026, while the Renard mine has already been mothballed.

With few new mines coming online, except for potential finds in Angola, the sector faces sustained production constraints.

Leading producer De Beers has responded to these challenges by reducing its 2024 production targets to 23-26 million carats, down from the initially planned 26-29 million carats.

This strategic reduction, coupled with the company's growing inventory valued at $1.7 billion, demonstrates the industry's preference for supply control over price reduction as a path to market recovery.

Price Index Plummets Significantly

Market turbulence has sent diamond prices into a steep decline, with the RapNet Diamond Index for 1-carat stones falling 7.3% in July 2024 – marking its sharpest monthly drop since December 2008. This significant downturn reflects broader challenges facing the industry, including weakened demand from key markets and mounting inventory pressures, with RapNet listings climbing 2% to 1.7 million stones.

The industry's attempts at price stabilization strategies have faced substantial headwinds, particularly as consumer perception shifts continue to favor lab-grown alternatives. This trend, combined with economic slowdowns in critical markets like China and reduced purchasing from luxury brands, has created a perfect storm for price depreciation. The first half of 2023 experienced a dramatic 6.5% price drop, contributing to the ongoing market instability. Round diamonds still maintain market dominance at 80.42% of all diamond sales. In contrast, fancy color diamonds demonstrate remarkable resilience with strong upward trends across all categories.

The situation has been further complicated by new certification requirements from US and European buyers regarding Russian diamond origins, adding another layer of complexity to market dynamics.

Indian manufacturers have responded by reducing production volumes, while global rough diamond supply has contracted by 40% due to international sanctions. Despite these defensive measures, the market continues to grapple with oversupply issues and declining retail sales, particularly in the critical bridal segment.

Supply Chain Challenges

The global diamond industry faces significant operational slowdowns as major producers, including De Beers, scale back production amid challenging market conditions.

While total diamond output dropped 8% to 111.5 million carats in 2023, companies continue to accumulate substantial inventory, with De Beers' stockpiles reaching $1.7 billion by year-end.

The combination of reduced mining operations and mounting inventories signals a complex supply chain scenario, particularly as established mines near their end of life and few new sources emerge to fill the production gap.

Mining Operations Slow Down

Recent data from the Kimberley Process reveals an unprecedented slowdown in global diamond mining operations, with total output plummeting 8% to 111.5 million carats in 2023.

Major producers across key regions have reported significant declines, with Russia experiencing an 11% decrease, while South Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo saw reductions of 3.8 and 2.4 million carats, respectively.

The industry faces multiple challenges beyond mining technology and labor shortages, as several prominent mines approach their end of life.

De Beers has already adjusted its 2024 production forecast downward to 23-26 million carats, reflecting the broader industry trend. The Diavik operation in Canada exemplifies this situation, with commercial production scheduled to cease in 2026.

Rather than implementing price reductions, mining companies are opting to decrease supply to maintain market value.

This strategic approach comes as the world's largest diamond mines mature beyond their peak production levels.

Despite these operational constraints, the industrial diamond market is projected to grow from $2.08 billion in 2023 to $2.15 billion in 2024, driven by increasing industrialization and urbanization demands.

Inventory Stockpiles Mount Up

Mounting inventory challenges compound the diamond industry's production woes, with De Beers reporting stockpiles valued at $1.7 billion by the end of 2023. The industry's inventory valuation concerns intensified as production exceeded sales by 624,000 carats in the initial half of 2024, prompting major producers to implement strategic stockpile management measures.

The growing inventory surplus reflects broader market challenges, including reduced consumer demand and shifting preferences toward alternative options like lab-grown diamonds. In response to these pressures, De Beers and other major producers have opted to reduce production rather than cut prices, protecting market stability while managing excess inventory levels.

This approach demonstrates the industry's commitment to maintaining long-term value despite short-term stockpile challenges.

The situation has led to increased focus on sophisticated inventory management strategies, with companies implementing more stringent controls over production and distribution channels.

These efforts, combined with diversification of supply sources and technological improvements in processing, aim to address the immediate stockpile concerns while positioning the industry for more sustainable inventory levels in the future.

Russia's Diamond Industry Impact

International sanctions imposed by the European Union, G7 countries, and Switzerland have dealt a significant blow to Russia's diamond industry, targeting both direct and indirect imports of Russian diamonds.

The sanctions, which take full effect in March 2024, include a thorough diamond traceability system to be implemented by September 2024, ensuring strict monitoring of diamond origins.

The impact on Russia's diamond sector has been substantial, with ALROSA, the country's leading diamond producer, reporting a 2.8% decrease in production and a 35% decline in net profits during the initial half of 2023.

African diamond-producing nations have voiced strong opposition to Western sanctions, citing concerns about their own economic stability and lack of consultation in the decision-making process.

As Russia controls 35% of global rough diamond production and holds 46.15% of global reserves, these restrictions are expected to create significant market disruptions.

The Russian government has responded by arranging financial assistance through the Ministry of Finance to purchase diamonds that cannot be exported due to sanctions.

BRICS nations are working to establish new trade mechanisms to support market stability and fair interaction in the global diamond trade.

Global rough diamond exports experienced a sharp 37.17% decline in the first nine months of 2023, indicating severe market contraction.

The implications extend beyond Russia's borders, potentially leading to global supply shortages and price increases.

Industry stakeholders are exploring alternative solutions through BRICS cooperation mechanisms, though technological challenges in diamond traceability remain a significant hurdle.

Regional Production Shifts

Global diamond production has plunged to its lowest level in two decades, with output falling 8% to 111. 5 million carats in 2023. Major producers across key regions experienced significant declines, with Russia’s output dropping by 11%, South Africa falling 3. 8 million carats below previous levels, and the Democratic Republic of Congo decreasing by 2. 4 million carats. These declines were attributed to a combination of factors including aging mines, declining mine reserves, and operational challenges. As a result, the top diamond producing nations, including Russia, Botswana, Canada, and Australia, have all reported decreases in production. This downturn has prompted concerns about the future availability of diamonds and has led to increased exploration efforts in search of new diamond deposits. The drop in diamond production has also impacted the global diamond production ranking 2021, with significant shifts in the positions of various countries. As a result of the declines in production, some countries previously ranked among the top diamond producers have seen their rankings drop, while others have experienced an increase in their rankings due to their ability to maintain or slightly increase production levels. This shifting landscape has sparked discussions about the need for innovation in the industry to address these challenges and ensure the continued availability of diamonds for the global market.

The industry's challenges stem from both operational factors and market dynamics. De Beers' shift to underground mining at Venetia in South Africa and the impending closure of Canada's Diavik mine in 2026 highlight the need for production innovation across traditional mining regions.

Market diversification efforts are evident as companies adapt to changing conditions, with De Beers reducing its 2024 production target to 23-26 million carats while building inventory.

Despite these challenges, the global diamond market is projected to reach USD 105.2 billion in 2024 and USD 110.1 billion in 2025. Angola emerges as the most promising region for new finds, while the industry simultaneously witnesses a significant shift toward lab-grown diamonds, which are expected to generate USD 11 billion in nominal sales by 2024.

Future Mining Prospects

With mature mines nearing depletion and limited new findings on the horizon, the future of diamond mining faces significant challenges. Key operations, including Canada's Diavik mine, are scheduled to cease production by 2025, while exploration technologies have yet to yield substantial new revelations outside of promising developments in Angola.

The industry's sustainability initiatives are becoming increasingly critical as traditional mining sources diminish.

The landscape of diamond production is undergoing a fundamental shift, with major producers like De Beers adapting their strategies to address resource scarcity. The change of existing mines from open-pit to underground operations, as seen at the Venetia deposit, reflects the growing complexity and cost of diamond extraction.

This alteration, combined with declining production volumes and falling prices per carat, suggests a future where natural diamond supplies may become increasingly constrained.

Market forecasts indicate a pivotal change in the industry's direction, with lab-grown diamonds gaining prominence. While the comprehensive diamond market is projected to reach $105.2 billion in 2024, the rise of synthetic alternatives, expected to achieve $11 billion in sales, signals a transformative period in the diamond sector's evolution.

Industrial Diamond Market Performance

The industrial diamond market presents a stark contrast to declining natural gem production, reaching a market value of $2.08 billion in 2023. Despite challenges in natural diamond mining, synthetic dominance has revolutionized the industrial sector, accounting for over 99% of production and consumption. The market demonstrates resilience with projected growth at a CAGR of 3.9% through 2028. This growth is largely attributed to the expanding applications of synthetic diamonds in sectors such as electronics, construction, and precision tools, where their superior hardness and durability offer unmatched advantages. The synthetic diamond industry growth is further fueled by advancements in production technologies, such as chemical vapor deposition (CVD), which enable cost-effective, high-quality manufacturing. As sustainability concerns rise, synthetic diamonds are also gaining favor due to their reduced environmental impact compared to traditional mining.

Key performance indicators reveal robust demand across multiple sectors:

1. Construction and drilling operations maintain strong consumption patterns, particularly in the U.S. market.
2. Semiconductor manufacturing continues to drive significant demand.
3. Emerging applications in electronics and renewable energy sectors fuel market expansion.
4. High-performance industrial applications create new revenue streams.

Market growth is primarily driven by technological advancements in lab-grown diamond production and rapid industrialization across global manufacturing sectors.

While natural industrial diamond production faces constraints, with Russia and Congo (Kinshasa) leading limited output, synthetic alternatives effectively meet industrial demands.

The sector's performance reflects successful adaptation to resource limitations through technological innovation, ensuring sustained growth despite the decline in natural diamond availability.

Consumer Demand Trends

Shifting consumer preferences have reshaped the diamond market landscape, driving total revenue projections to USD 105.2 billion in 2024 despite production constraints. The market has demonstrated robust growth, with a CAGR of 3.70% from 2022 to 2023, reflecting evolving consumer priorities and market dynamics.

A notable trend is the increasing demand for sustainable diamonds, particularly lab-grown alternatives that offer equivalent quality at more accessible price points. This shift is evidenced by the projected USD 11 billion in lab-grown diamond sales for 2024, with an expected incremental growth of USD 7 billion.

Consumer preferences are increasingly aligned with ethical considerations and environmental consciousness, driving the adoption of these alternatives.

The transformation in purchasing behavior extends to digital channels, with online platforms becoming increasingly significant in diamond retail. Customization and personalization have emerged as key drivers of consumer demand, allowing buyers to exercise greater control over their purchases.

While natural diamonds continue to dominate the market with projected sales of USD 72 billion in 2024, the growing acceptance of lab-grown diamonds signals a fundamental shift in consumer values and market expectations.

Global Market Outlook

Diamond markets worldwide face unprecedented challenges as global production plummets to a two-decade low of 111.5 million carats in 2023, marking an 8% decline from previous levels.

Despite these headwinds, market projections indicate measured growth potential, with the global market expected to expand from $101.9 billion in 2023 to $118.4 billion by 2027, driven by sustainability initiatives and market diversification strategies.

Industry analysts highlight several key trends shaping the market's future trajectory:

1. Production volumes are establishing new baseline norms, reflecting natural resource depletion and stricter regulatory frameworks.
2. Market value is projected to grow at a 3.70% CAGR through 2027, despite reduced production levels.
3. Major producers, including De Beers, are adapting operations to align with market realities, targeting 23-26 million carats for 2024.
4. Industrial diamond segment maintains stability with 3.3% growth, primarily sustained by synthetic diamond production.

The industry's outlook reflects a complex balance between diminishing natural supplies and evolving market demands.

While production challenges persist, strategic adaptations and market innovations continue to support moderate growth prospects, particularly in sectors embracing sustainable practices and technological advancement.

Frequently Asked Questions

How Do Lab-Grown Diamonds Affect Natural Diamond Mining Profitability?

Lab-grown diamonds intensify market competition, reducing natural diamond profitability through lower prices and shifting consumer preferences toward more affordable, ethically-sourced alternatives, ultimately pressuring traditional mining operations' profit margins.

What Role Do Small Artisanal Diamond Miners Play in Global Production?

Artisanal mining contributes considerably to global diamond production, particularly in African nations. These small-scale operations have substantial economic impact, though they often operate with limited regulation and technological resources.

How Do Geopolitical Tensions Influence Diamond Certification and Trading Routes?

Like ancient trade routes of old, geopolitical risks disrupt modern diamond certification processes and trading paths, creating certification challenges that demand strategic control over supply chains and verification protocols.

What Environmental Impact Do Diamond Mining Operations Have on Local Ecosystems?

Diamond mining causes severe ecosystem disruption through deforestation, soil erosion, and habitat destruction. Operations lead to extensive water contamination, poisoning local water supplies and endangering both wildlife and communities.

How Does Diamond Quality Grading Differ Between Major International Certification Bodies?

While certification standards remain similar, GIA maintains stricter grading criteria than IGI and HRD, with key differences in clarity assessment, color evaluation, and final grade determination across organizations.

Conclusion

As the old adage states, "All that glitters is not gold," and the diamond industry faces this reality in stark terms. Global diamond production has reached unprecedented lows amid market disruptions, supply chain challenges, and geopolitical tensions. While industrial diamond demand remains stable, consumer markets show uncertainty. The industry's future hinges on adapting to these challenges, developing new mining technologies, and maneuvering shifting regional dynamics in the global marketplace.

Andrew Wilson

Andrew Wilson is a seasoned writer specializing in the jewellery industry and news. His career began in the newspaper industry, where he honed his reporting skills and developed a keen eye for detail, laying the foundation for his meticulous research in later writing endeavors. Transitioning into marketing, Wilson gained valuable insights into consumer behavior and market trends, enriching his understanding of the jewellery industry when he embraced full-time writing about 15 years ago. In 2019, he discovered a passion for jewellery writing, focusing on market trends and innovative designs. A member of the International Gem Society, Andrew's work is characterized by thorough research and accuracy, offering comprehensive insights into the jewellery world. He occasionally adopts pseudonyms to cater to different audiences and business needs, serving a diverse clientele, including numerous jewellery businesses. Recognized for his unique blend of industry knowledge, research prowess, and engaging writing style, Wilson is dedicated to demystifying the jewellery industry, making it more accessible and understandable to both enthusiasts and professionals.